This market will resolve to YES if: 
After theSkeward (The Current Discord Administrator) has stepped down from his current role, 
the selected replacement has taken power, and
the individual selected identifies as female.

town biden

Honourary

TheSkeward

Ben Rog-Wilhelm

Faul Sname

I am the current administrator of this Discord server. I will choose the answer based on which user currently has the 'Administrator' role or has been officially announced as the successor, not based on the precise permission scheme - ie, if an administration bot had Administrator access, this would not factor into my choice, and if I still held the server owner status during a probationary period after I'd announced and handed the role over to another user, I would choose that user.

An opportunity to join in on https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/sWLLdG6DWJEy3CH7n/imo-challenge-bet-with-eliezer
Eliezer has this at >16%; Paul at <8%.
Resolves to YES if either Eliezer or Paul acknowledge that an AI has succeeded at this task.

Related market: https://manifold.markets/MatthewBarnett/will-a-machine-learning-model-score-f0d93ee0119b

This question is prompted by the ongoing speculation / observations in the news that the world is now entering into a hegemony between the United States and China.

* The talk must be with Xi Xinping or an appointed high level delegate and at least 5 NATO leaders from any of the NATO countries.
* Putin may have a stand-in such as Sergey Lavrov or other recognizable Russian leader, but the name must be recognizable and can't be some low level person talking with other low level people, they must be whatever the equivalent to Russian cabinet members would be.
* Same goes for NATO, preferably the leaders would be top level officials such as Boris Johnson, Joe Biden, etc., however whatever a given country's equivalent to Vice President, Secretary of State or otherwise would be acceptable.

If this ends up being a meeting of direct world leaders, this will resolve to YES. If this ends up being a bunch of cabinet members talking to each other, it may resolve to a high probability such as 75%.  If a fake looking meeting between celebrities such as Sean Penn, Bono, other NATO celebrities and the members of t.A.T.u. happens it will resolve to 1%, and scale up in importance from there. If no meeting happens it will resolve to NO.

Resolved according to https://www.cold-takes.com/bet-with-zvi-about-omicron/
Dates are inclusive.
#ZviOnOmicron #Omicron

The biggest bet after close that has a comment.

David Glidden

Jacky Pritch

Andrew Rohrkemper

PredictIt trader Gaeten Dugas (@GaetenD on Twitter) hosts a weekly poker night for PredictIt traders (and associated circles). Who will win Wednesday, March 2nd, 2022?

Details to play or observe: https://twitter.com/GaetenD/status/1412847758776717312?s=20&t=6OPGeD1SGW-hNCF-xSy2gQ

Daniel Reeves

[AUTOD] Steadily adding integrations (Focusmate has been So Huge!); in particular the meta integration

[UNCLE] The uncle button (as in crying uncle, like "yes yes, stop zeno'ing, I'm intentionally taking the derailment on this")

[SCHED] Revamping/optimizing the pledge schedule

[BOARD] Just gradually making Beeminder better and clearer and onboarding better and emailing people more when they fall off the wagon, etc etc

[GRAPH] Dynagraphs, aka merging graph.beeminder.com into Beeminder proper

Mr R

I think you'd get more engagement if you explained the features you've got. Right now, searching this is a Trivial Inconvenience.

In the absence of a better way to estimate this, we'll go by what we decide to do first.

Gurkenglas

ANTE: Stake on this to subsidize the market.

Niclas Kupper

Resolve market to probabilities other than market probabilities. Useful for betting on outcomes of other markets.

tigrennatenn

Graph showing the pool size of a market over time

Melanie Heisey

A meta-market. Simple exchange that lets you place a bid/sell order for shares of whatever market.

Set a time to stop allowing creation of new free response answers separately from the market close time

Jotto 999

We need numerical range questions.  Many topics are way more informative when expressed that way, over a Yes No.

p_journal

Ability to tip users M$ for helpful comments.

John Beshir

Ability to attach (private) personal notes to other users (e.g. to keep track of who you've observed be a good market resolver)

N.C. Young

Ability to include a short message when resolving a market

TANSTAAFL

A "poll" category of market.  You can buy as many votes as you want but the payout is unrelated to which answer wins.  (Could be zero, could reverse the system so bettors get 4% and the creator gets the balance, or something else.)

Ben Dunn-Flores

Reducing the number of personal questions (eg. "Will I do ...")

Patrick Delaney

Market Indicies, Allowing Multiple Markets to Be Combined Into One and Automatically Weighted with Drag and Drop Type Feature

Show currently placed on market overviews, like https://manifold.markets/markets (it is easy to forget where loans were used)

Allow to exclude communities/tags on feed/market overview. It would be nice to not have ability to skip all this gambling ("yes iff pool divisible by 2" etc)

There is no reason the next feature market should wait until the resolution of https://manifold.markets/Austin/what-new-manifold-features-would-be .

I plan to resolve PROB so as to create good incentives.

For example, if someone finds a loophole and stakes M$ 10000 one second before closing time, expecting to siphon this pool into their account for no meaningful contribution, and this is plain as day to all involved, I expect to try to make sure they don't profit.

If someone gives an answer you expect deserves payment, and so you immediately double their stake, allowing them to immediately cash out at a profit, that is a reasonable way to gain the payout they would have. I too may do so, if I make sure to not unduly profit from insider knowledge.

I plan to pay out 3% of profits on this market, that is, 75% of the creator's commission, to the ANTE answer, allowing others to subsidize this market. The remaining percentage point seems a fair commission for my administration.

The rules may change in the face of good arguments, especially when that doesn't discourage early contribution. I won't ignore the incentives of people that have already acted. In fact, good arguments in the form of answers will be rewarded! For this "smart contract" with a human in place of a blockchain also could use feature suggestions. But do mark such answers "Meta: ".

I don't plan to reward previously suggested features unless you weren't paid enough for them. I think you should be paid for your feature requests that have already been implemented before this market's creation, but I will take the opinions of ANTE stakes into account here.

I consent to this market being transferred to another user by Manifold staff if future me behaves in ways that apparent present me grossly disapproves of. If I get tired of this, I may say so and close this after 24 hours. If Manifold doesn't implement partial payouts and history archival in time we may have to close and reopen this.

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